‘Moana’ Remake’s $95M Opening Raises Alarm As Disney Faces Potential $100M+ Box Office Loss
Disney’s live-action Moana has gotten off to a much slower start than many expected, raising fresh questions about whether the studio may have returned to one of its biggest modern franchises too soon. While the original animated film remains one of Disney’s most popular titles ever, the new remake has struggled to convince audiences to return to theaters.
According to Variety, the live-action adaptation opened with around $43 million in North America and roughly $95 million worldwide during its opening weekend. Those numbers fall well below expectations for a film carrying a reported production budget of $250 million, with marketing costs estimated at another $120 million.
That creates a difficult road ahead for the movie. Industry estimates suggest Moana will need to earn at least $600 million worldwide just to break even in theaters because studios only receive a portion of ticket sales after theaters take their share. If the film performs similarly to Disney’s Snow White remake earlier this year, it could end up losing more than $100 million during its theatrical run.
One reason many analysts point to is timing. Unlike several of Disney’s biggest live-action remakes, the original Moana is still relatively recent. The animated movie debuted in 2016, while Moana 2 arrived only two years before the remake. That means audiences have never really had time to miss the characters or feel nostalgic enough for a new version.
Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations believes that worked against the film. “Disney’s strategy is dependent on whether audiences see the remake as an event or a duplicate,” he told Variety. “This was the latter. People wanted ‘Moana 3,’ not a remake of the original.”
The reception also suggests that popularity alone is not enough. The original Moana has become one of Disney’s biggest streaming successes, while Moana 2 crossed the $1 billion mark at the global box office. Even with that popularity, many viewers appeared satisfied simply revisiting the animated version on Disney+ instead of paying to watch a live-action retelling that closely follows the same story.
Despite mixed reviews from critics, audiences have reacted more positively. The film earned an A- CinemaScore, suggesting moviegoers who have seen it generally enjoyed the experience. Disney is now hoping that strong word of mouth will help the movie remain steady over the coming weeks instead of suffering a sharp second-weekend drop.
Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore believes the weeks ahead will determine the film’s fate. “Opening weekend is important, but ‘Moana’ is going to be about long-term playability,” he said. “That means you don’t want to see a 60-70% second-weekend drop.”
Another challenge is the crowded release schedule. Moana now faces competition from several major family films, while Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is taking over premium large-format screens such as IMAX, limiting one of the remake’s biggest opportunities to increase ticket sales.
The film’s large budget has also drawn attention. According to Variety, Dwayne Johnson reportedly earned close to $30 million for returning as Maui while also serving as a producer. Production delays caused by the 2023 Hollywood strikes also added to the final cost.
Still, Disney’s investment in Moana goes beyond ticket sales. The franchise has become one of the company’s biggest brands through merchandise, music streaming, theme park attractions, and Disney+ viewership. Since 2016, Moana has inspired millions of toy sales, billions of music streams, and attractions at Disney parks around the world.
Why Do You Think Disney's Live-Action 'Moana' Is Struggling?
Even if the live-action remake struggles financially, it is unlikely to be the end of the franchise. Reports already suggest that a third animated Moana film is in development. However, the disappointing launch of the remake may encourage Disney to leave more time between future returns to Motunui, allowing audiences to build the kind of nostalgia that helped turn many of its earlier live-action remakes into billion-dollar hits.
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