‘Resident Evil’ Just Turned Into a Global Box Office Outbreak, and the Forecast Looks Even Bigger

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Video game movies have never had an easy time at the box office. For years, adaptations were treated as risky bets that critics disliked and audiences forgot quickly. The ‘Resident Evil’ film franchise has been a textbook case, with seven live-action entries and only one review score that ever cracked 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Sony hoped Zach Cregger could change that. The ‘Barbarian’ and ‘Weapons’ filmmaker took over a reboot with a reported $75M budget, focusing on a medical courier named Bryan (Austin Abrams) caught in a zombie outbreak in Raccoon City. Reviews were glowing, with a 96% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, and audiences gave it a B+ CinemaScore, the best in franchise history.

Now the worldwide numbers are in, and they are enormous. ‘Resident Evil‘ opened to an estimated $108.3M globally, made up of $60M in North America and $48.3M from international markets. Box Office Forecast, an account that tracks projections, says the film is now heading toward a $385M global finale, with Japan and China still to come.

The opening is a franchise best by a wide margin. It outgrossed the entire worldwide runs of the original 2002 film ($102.9M) and ‘Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City’ ($41.9M) in a single weekend. The previous domestic record was $26.6M for ‘Afterlife’ in 2010, so the new film more than doubled it.

It is also a personal record for Cregger. His last film, ‘Weapons,’ opened to $43.5M domestically and around $70M worldwide, and it went on to earn $270M globally against a $38M budget. Sony’s own initial projection for ‘Resident Evil’ was about $40M domestically, so the film beat expectations by 50%.

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‘Resident Evil’ Just Rewrote Its Own Box Office History, and Zach Cregger Is the Reason

The overseas portion came from 62 markets, with the UK leading at $5.8M. Mexico followed at $5.6M, with France, Australia and Germany each contributing between $2.5M and $2.6M. Deadline said the $48.3M is the best international opening for a horror film this year, ahead of ‘Backrooms’ at $36.6M.

Among horror releases this year, only ‘Backrooms’ has had a bigger worldwide debut at $118M. Deadline also reported that, on a like-for-like basis, the film opened 66% above ‘Weapons’ and 18% ahead of ‘Alien: Romulus.’ Reports say about 13% of international regions have not yet screened the movie, which helps explain why Japan and China remain a key part of the outlook.

The projection puts the film well above the franchise’s current global high. ‘Resident Evil: The Final Chapter’ earned $312M in 2016, and more than half of that came from China. A $385M finish would beat it by a comfortable margin, although the forecast is only an estimate, not a confirmed figure.

The forecast chart also compares the film’s expected curve to other titles, placing it above ‘Weapons’ and ‘Mortal Kombat 2’ but below ‘World War Z.’ That comparison is a projection from the same account, so it should be read as an educated guess. Horror films are often front-loaded, which means the coming weekends will show whether this one has legs.

The $75M production budget does not include marketing and promotion costs, which are usually large for a global release. Studios also share ticket revenue with theaters, so a $385M gross does not translate to that much profit. Even so, opening weekend numbers this high give the film a strong chance of turning a healthy return.

The audience mix helps too. Rentrak said the audience skewed younger and male, and analyst Paul Dergarabedian pointed to Gen Z’s love of horror as a driver of the box office. According to Deadline, the film also expanded the audience beyond fans of the Milla Jovovich movies.

The biggest tests are ahead. Japan and China both have a strong connection to the game series and could add significantly to the total. In North America, the film benefits from having few major horror rivals until ‘Other Mommy’ arrives on Oct. 9.

If the word of mouth holds, this could become one of the year’s biggest horror stories. It would also prove that a video game adaptation can succeed by trusting a distinctive director. For a franchise once written off, that would be a remarkable turnaround.

Can Resident Evil reach the projected $385M worldwide?

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