Box Office Analysts Have a Warning for ‘Supergirl’: It’s Tracking Just Like Marvel’s ‘Thunderbolts*’

The summer of 2026 has already been a crowded one for blockbuster releases, with superhero films jostling for space alongside major franchise reboots and family favorites. As the calendar inches closer to the next big DC release, attention has started to shift toward how the studio’s latest gamble might perform once it actually lands in theaters.

That gamble is Supergirl, the Craig Gillespie-directed feature starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor El, which arrives as the second theatrical entry in James Gunn and Peter Safran’s rebooted DC Universe. Expectations have been a mixed bag for months, with early chatter ranging from cautious optimism to outright concern about whether the film can find its footing at the box office.

Now, fresh analysis is drawing a pointed comparison that has fans talking. According to recent box office tracking shared online, current projections suggest Supergirl is performing in a range similar to Marvel’s Thunderbolts*, a film that opened to $74.3 million domestically and finished its run with a worldwide total of $382.4 million.

For context on what that comparison actually means, Thunderbolts* earned an A- CinemaScore from opening weekend audiences, reflecting a positive reception among the people who actually bought tickets. The film also drew some of Marvel’s most positive reviews in recent memory, a notable rebound after Captain America Brave New World had landed an MCU low B- grade from the same pollster.

If Supergirl is genuinely tracking in that same neighborhood, it would represent a relatively solid outcome for a film that has faced its share of skepticism. Early projections had been considerably less rosy, with some reports suggesting an opening weekend closer to the mid 50 million dollar range, which would put the film in territory uncomfortably close to 2023’s The Flash, a movie widely viewed as a financial disappointment for Warner Bros.

The mood around Supergirl appears to have brightened somewhat in the days leading up to release. Earlier pre sale data reportedly showed the film performing roughly two and a half times better than The Marvels at a similar stage of ticket sales, while also tracking close to Black Widow and slightly ahead of Thunderbolts. That kind of upward momentum matters for a studio that has been navigating a delicate moment for its rebooted cinematic universe.

Critically, there is also reason for cautious optimism. As of June 10, Supergirl was predicted to land around a 76 percent critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which sits right at the edge of the threshold needed for the coveted Certified Fresh designation. That projected score would place the film below both Superman and The Fantastic Four First Steps in terms of critical reception, but well above the much maligned Brave New World.

Audience sentiment appears even stronger if the figures circulating online hold up, with reports of a high audience approval rating suggesting that general moviegoers may respond even more warmly than critics. For a studio that has staked its future on building a cohesive and beloved cinematic universe, strong word of mouth could prove just as valuable as the opening weekend numbers themselves.

Of course, tracking numbers are notoriously fickle, and the gap between projection and reality can be significant once a film actually opens. Industry observers have noted that opening weekend tracking is not the be all end all, since films can overperform and word of mouth can completely change a movie’s trajectory once it is in theaters.

There is also the matter of budget to consider. Reports have pegged Supergirl’s production costs at a substantial figure, meaning the film will need significant worldwide grosses just to break even, a reality that has loomed over much of the pre release coverage.

Still, with ‘Thunderbolts’ having proven that a modestly budgeted ensemble film can find an audience and turn a profit through strong critical buzz and audience word of mouth, a similar trajectory for ‘Supergirl’ would be welcome news for DC fans. Whether the comparison holds up once real numbers come in remains to be seen, but for now, the tracking has given the DCU faithful something to be cautiously excited about.

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