‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Could Beat ‘No Way Home’s Global Opening, Here’s Why

Tom Holland’s Spider-Man has always been a reliable box office draw, but the road to this particular sequel has been unlike anything the franchise has seen before. Five years removed from the multiverse-spanning chaos of ‘No Way Home,’ expectations for Peter Parker’s next chapter have been building steadily for months.

Presale numbers have already given a hint of what is coming. ‘Brand New Day’ recently posted the strongest first day presales of any film in five years, a record previously held by ‘No Way Home’ itself, with domestic presales crossing forty million dollars well before opening weekend even arrives.

Now tracking suggests the film’s global opening weekend could actually surpass ‘No Way Home,’ and the reason has everything to do with China. Official Chinese survey data known as WTS reportedly shows ‘Brand New Day’ as the most anticipated July release in the country this year, and the most anticipated comic book movie there since ‘Far From Home.’

That distinction matters enormously given the franchise’s complicated history in China. ‘No Way Home’ never received a theatrical release in the country at all, a gap that still did not stop the film from finishing its run with a staggering worldwide total of 1.91 billion dollars. With China now confirmed for ‘Brand New Day,’ the film has access to a massive additional market that its predecessor simply never had.

Early tracking suggests ‘Brand New Day’ could become the first comic book movie to cross 100 million dollars in China since ‘Far From Home,’ which earned roughly 199 million dollars there. Reaching even a fraction of that number would meaningfully close the gap between this film and ‘No Way Home’s record-setting run, especially once combined with the movie’s already strong domestic and international numbers elsewhere.

Domestically, most current projections still place ‘Brand New Day’ just behind ‘No Way Home’s’ historic 260.1 million dollar opening weekend, with estimates ranging between 212 million and 255 million dollars depending on the tracking model. Some outlets have floated numbers as high as 550 million dollars for the worldwide opening weekend overall, which would still fall short of ‘No Way Home’s’ 601 million dollar global debut under most conservative estimates, though the added China boost is exactly what could push those numbers over the top if the hype translates into ticket sales.

There is also the added wrinkle of premium screens to consider. ‘Brand New Day’ will not have access to domestic IMAX theaters during its opening weekend, since those auditoriums remain locked into Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ through mid August. The film is similarly without IMAX access in China for its first two weeks, meaning any record setting performance would come without the premium format boost that usually helps blockbusters chase these kinds of numbers.

Test screenings for the film have reportedly generated strong buzz as well, with some early reactions comparing it favorably to some of the best entries in the wider Spider-Man catalog. That kind of reception, paired with the returning ensemble that includes appearances from characters like the Punisher and Hulk alongside live-action debuts for several new villains, has only added to the sense that this release could be something special.

‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ opens in theaters on July 31, with early screenings for Amazon Prime members beginning two days earlier. Whether the film ultimately surpasses ‘No Way Home’ at the global box office or simply comes close, the sheer scale of anticipation surrounding its release marks a major moment for the franchise, regardless of the final numbers.

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