‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Is Tracking for a Massive Global Opening, And That Number Keeps Growing

The tracking numbers for ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘ have officially crossed into historically significant territory. The worldwide opening weekend projection now stands at $550 million, a figure that would place Tom Holland’s return as Peter Parker among the largest global debuts ever recorded for any film in the superhero genre, all of it without access to a single domestic IMAX screen.

The domestic component of that projection is sitting between $228 million and $255 million, depending on which tracking model you rely on. Box Office Theory placed the central estimate at $228 million, with a low end of $212 million and ceiling as high as $255 million. Global Box Office has separately projected the film could open above $250 million domestically.

Any figure in that range would represent the biggest superhero opening since ‘Deadpool and Wolverine,’ and one of the largest domestic debuts in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

The presale data anchoring those projections is extraordinary. As confirmed by Deadline, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ posted the strongest first-day U.S. presales of any film in five years, with the last release to match that pace being ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home,’ which went on to open to $260.1 million domestically.

Fandango separately confirmed the film became their single biggest first-day ticket preseller of the year, outperforming even Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey,’ which had set its own records weeks earlier.

Domestic presales have now crossed $40 million with more than three weeks still remaining before opening night, and director Destin Daniel Cretton spoke to that anticipation on Crew Call, noting that audiences should go into ‘Brand New Day’ treating it as if it could be the last Spider-Man, adding “is there ever a last Spider-Man?”

The franchise’s most recent comparable, ‘No Way Home,’ eventually accumulated roughly $78 million in presales before its December 2021 opening, and went on to the second-best opening weekend in box office history behind only ‘Avengers: Endgame.’ The current pace for ‘Brand New Day’ is tracking alongside that benchmark, if not slightly ahead of it this far out.

What makes the tracking even more striking is the premium format situation. ‘Brand New Day’ will not have access to domestic IMAX screens on opening weekend, as those auditoriums remain committed to Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ through August 14. The film is also landing without China’s IMAX screens for the first two weeks, though it has secured that exclusivity shortly after that period ends. Generating a projected $550 million globally without those premium screens available is a statement about the raw demand for this specific character and this specific cast.

‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ opens in theaters on July 31, with Amazon Prime member early screenings beginning July 29. Based on every available data point, the film is on course to become one of the defining box office events of the decade, and the tracking numbers show no sign of slowing down.

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