‘Supergirl’ in Trouble? New Box Office Predictions Spark Worries for DC

Supergirl may be ready to take flight in the DC Universe, but the latest box office predictions suggest the movie could have a difficult journey ahead.

The upcoming DC Studios film, directed by Craig Gillespie and produced by James Gunn and Peter Safran, is now expected to earn less during its opening weekend than earlier forecasts predicted. Starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, the movie follows the success of David Corenswet’s Superman, where Supergirl made a brief appearance before getting her own adventure.

According to a new report from BoxOfficeTheory, Supergirl is currently projected to earn around $48 million during its domestic opening weekend from June 26 to June 28. The estimate falls within a range of $39 million to $51 million, showing a drop from earlier predictions.

The same outlet previously expected the movie to open closer to $51 million, with a possible range between $47 million and $58 million. Before that, forecasts were even higher, with some predictions placing the film’s opening as high as $65 million.

The lower expectations appear to come from several factors. BoxOfficeTheory noted that early reactions from audiences and critics have been mostly positive but mixed, which may affect interest before release. The report also mentioned that ticket pre-sales suggest the movie could have a strong first weekend but may depend heavily on opening-day audiences.

The outlet described its current $48 million prediction as “bullish” and warned that the movie could potentially finish closer to $40 million if interest does not grow.

Other box office analysts are also predicting a similar range. Box Office Pro estimates Supergirl could earn between $45 million and $55 million during its opening weekend. Meanwhile, entertainment journalist Matthew Belloni from Puck shared on X that early tracking from research company NRG has the film “sitting at $51 million for the 3-day opening.”

While the numbers are not disastrous, they create a challenge for the film’s path to profitability. According to Deadline, Supergirl reportedly had a production budget of around $175 million. That is slightly lower than Superman’s budget, but the movie still needs a strong worldwide performance to become a major success.

The film may need to earn more than $300 million globally to start becoming profitable, with some estimates suggesting it could need an even higher total depending on marketing costs and theater revenue splits.

Supergirl is also entering a crowded summer movie season. The film will compete against major releases, including Pixar’s Toy Story 5 and Illumination’s Minions & Monsters. Both animated movies are expected to attract large family audiences, which could make it harder for Supergirl to dominate the box office.

Minions & Monsters, arriving shortly after Supergirl, is currently predicted to open around $57 million domestically, slightly above the latest Supergirl projections. The superhero film will also share its release date with Jackass: Best and Last, although that movie is expected to have a much smaller opening.

More competition will arrive throughout the summer with films such as Young Washington, Evil Dead Burn, the live-action Moana adaptation, and The Odyssey entering theaters.

Despite the concerns, Supergirl still has several advantages. The film is part of James Gunn and Peter Safran’s new DC Universe, features a fresh take on the character, and introduces Jason Momoa as Lobo. The movie is also expected to have a different style from Superman, focusing more on a cosmic adventure.

Whether Supergirl can overcome the early concerns will depend on audience reactions after release. For now, the film faces pressure to prove that Kara Zor-El can become the next major DC hero.

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