‘Clayface’ Box Office Tracking: Can DC’s Gory Horror Experiment Open Big Without Breaking the Bank?
DC Studios has spent this year learning just how quickly box office fortunes can flip. ‘Superman’ kicked off James Gunn’s universe with a hit, while ‘Supergirl’ massively underperformed over the summer. That makes the ‘Clayface‘ box office opening a bigger test than its modest size suggests.
The R-rated body-horror film, directed by James Watkins and starring Tom Rhys Harries as Matt Hagen, hits theaters on October 23 as the third DCU feature. It’s also the last DC movie until ‘Man of Tomorrow’ next July. Releasing a gruesome horror movie right before Halloween gives it a built-in advantage that superhero blockbusters rarely enjoy.
Now the projections are coming into focus. Variety reports that ‘Clayface’ is aiming for $20 million to $25 million overseas from 76 markets, which would add up to a global opening of $45 million to $55 million. The film cost $44 million to produce, a fraction of the budget of recent DC adaptations like ‘Supergirl’ and ‘Superman.’
North American projections have moved around quite a bit. Variety had the film opening to $25 million to $35 million from 3,400 theaters, after Boxoffice Pro’s early long-range forecast of $23 million to $33 million. Other trackers have been more cautious, with some pointing to $20 million to $29 million and rival studio estimates of $22 million to $28 million.
The last few days have been choppier. One tracker following a theater chain said presales had good momentum on Monday but stalled before opening, and it now projects a preview night of about $3.5 million and an opening weekend of $18 million to $20 million. That projection was set before reviews landed.
Critics have been kinder than the last DC release got. ‘Clayface’ is now Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with 75% from 83 reviews, and it sits at 59 on Metacritic. That’s an improvement on the mostly panned ‘Supergirl,’ though it’s not quite at the heights of ‘Superman,’ which landed at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The reviews are fairly mixed rather than polarized, with lots of 3 out of 5 and 3.5 out of 5 scores. Critics have praised certain set pieces and the lead performances. Criticism centers on the editing, writing and tone.
The biggest problem may not be the reviews but a documentary. ‘You Can See Everything,’ an A24 film about Elizabeth Holmes, overperformed in its debut with $15.6 million and is expanding to around 2,600 theaters, which could take the No. 1 spot outright. ‘Wildwood,’ ‘Ali G: Who Iz I?’ and ‘Klara and the Sun’ are also opening.
Even so, there are encouraging signs under the hood. Early tracking found that only 32% of people were aware of the film, but among those who knew about it, 21% planned to see it on opening weekend, which is nearly double the norm. Horror also tends to rely heavily on walk-up business, which doesn’t always show up in advance sales.
Watch the first trailer for #Clayface. The new DC horror film is in theaters October 23. https://t.co/gqrrtJSou5
— Rotten Tomatoes 🍅 (@RottenTomatoes) April 22, 2026
A common rule of thumb says a movie needs two to two-and-a-half times its budget to break even, which puts ‘Clayface’ at roughly $80 million to $100 million worldwide. Some analysts estimate marketing costs at $20 million to $30 million, and break-even estimates run as high as $120 million depending on the math. A strong global opening would put it well on its way.
The context matters too. ‘Superman’ opened to $125 million domestically and earned $618.7 million on a $225 million budget, while ‘Supergirl’ debuted to $37.1 million domestically and flopped at $126 million worldwide. ‘Clayface’ is tracking below both domestic openings, but its budget is much smaller, so it doesn’t need a blockbuster to avoid a major loss.
How much will Clayface earn worldwide at the box office?
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