Prediction Markets Are Betting Big Against ‘Dune 3’ in Its Head-To-Head With ‘Avengers: Doomsday’

Hollywood hasn’t seen a box office collision quite like this one in years. Warner Bros.’ ‘Dune: Part Three‘ and Marvel’s ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ are both set to open on the exact same date, December 18, a scheduling standoff fans have already nicknamed “Dunesday” as two of the year’s biggest tentpoles prepare to battle for the same weekend of ticket sales, drawing comparisons to previous shared-release showdowns like “Barbenheimer.”

That shared release date has turned into one of the more closely watched storylines of the fall movie season, with box office analysts, exhibitors, and now prediction market traders all weighing in on which film will come out ahead. Neither studio has budged on the date so far, despite months of speculation that one side might eventually move to avoid a direct clash.

According to Polymarket, traders currently give ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ roughly a 93% implied probability of outgrossing ‘Dune: Part Three’ on their shared opening weekend, leaving ‘Dune 3’ with just a 7% chance in the eyes of the market. That gap has actually widened significantly since earlier in the year, when the same Polymarket contract had Doomsday sitting closer to an 89% favorite back in June and a slightly lower 78% in early July, suggesting confidence in Marvel’s film has only grown as release day approaches.

That confidence appears tied directly to presale demand. According to World of Reel, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is currently tracking toward $100 million in preview sales alone, with some estimates suggesting the film could ultimately challenge or even surpass ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s’ recent record for the biggest domestic opening weekend of all time, a figure that has only added to the growing gap between the two films in the eyes of traders.

Several factors appear to be driving that lopsided prediction. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ carries a significantly larger budget, reportedly between $500 million and $600 million, giving Marvel more resources to fuel an aggressive global marketing push, while ‘Dune: Part Three’ operates with a comparatively modest budget in the $150 million to $200 million range.

Historical box office trends also favor the Marvel side of the equation. The four previous ‘Avengers’ films have combined for more than $7.7 billion worldwide, with ‘Avengers: Endgame’ still ranking as the second-highest-grossing movie ever made, while ‘Dune’ as a franchise has grown steadily rather than dominated, with its first film earning $410 million in 2021 and its 2024 sequel reaching roughly $714 million, both respectable totals but far from the scale Marvel’s ensemble films typically command.

Beyond the financial comparison, format access has also become a factor in the prediction. ‘Dune: Part Three’ locked in exclusive access to IMAX screens ahead of release, with those premium showings reportedly selling out months in advance, giving the film a genuine strength in a specific, high-demand format even if its broader opening weekend numbers are expected to trail behind Marvel’s across standard theaters nationwide.

With both films now just months away from their shared release date, the prediction market gap between them offers one more data point in what’s shaping up to be one of the most heavily scrutinized box office weekends of the year. Whether that gap holds steady or narrows as more marketing rolls out in the coming months remains to be seen.

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